Covid Report for Family

Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

• This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be that reported the day prior.
• The table of contents above summarizes the major sections and can be used to jump to those sections.
• Each major section is then divided into tabs to allow you to more easily shuffle between geographies and metrics.
  • If you open on your phone, I don’t believe the tabs will work, so you’ll just see the page as one long, continuous document.
• More detailed descriptions and context can be found in each section.

Growth rates

Heat maps

• The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
• The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
• The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
• The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
  • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
  • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
  • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
  • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

• This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
• For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
  • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

State	Cases Per Million
New York	13,223
New Jersey	10,792
Connecticut	6,302
Massachusetts	6,230
Rhode Island	5,513
Louisiana	5,433
District of Columbia	4,542
Michigan	3,397
Delaware	3,286
Pennsylvania	2,871
Illinois	2,770
Maryland	2,443
South Dakota	2,100
Georgia	1,893
Colorado	1,888
Indiana	1,847
Washington	1,646
Mississippi	1,644
Nevada	1,324
Vermont	1,318
Florida	1,317
Ohio	1,207
Virginia	1,202
Iowa	1,193
New Hampshire	1,167
Alabama	1,144
Tennessee	1,128
Utah	1,076
New Mexico	1,053
Missouri	999
California	950
Idaho	944
Nebraska	944
South Carolina	924
North Dakota	891
Wisconsin	832
Arkansas	792
Kansas	786
Kentucky	754
Texas	750
Arizona	749
Oklahoma	731
North Carolina	688
Maine	674
Wyoming	563
West Virginia	523
Oregon	488
Minnesota	482
Alaska	457
Hawaii	413
Montana	410
Puerto Rico	286
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

State	New Cases Per Million
Connecticut	421
New Jersey	396
Rhode Island	357
New York	247
Massachusetts	235
Delaware	226
District of Columbia	195
Illinois	124
Maryland	107
Pennsylvania	98
Louisiana	95
Iowa	89
Michigan	86
South Dakota	84
Georgia	77
Ohio	71
Mississippi	69
Arkansas	67
Virginia	67
Colorado	66
Indiana	60
Nebraska	60
New Mexico	58
California	50
Alabama	48
New Hampshire	48
Kansas	45
North Dakota	41
Tennessee	41
Utah	39
Nevada	36
Washington	32
Florida	30
Kentucky	30
Wisconsin	28
Texas	26
Missouri	25
Arizona	24
Oklahoma	24
South Carolina	24
North Carolina	23
Minnesota	21
Idaho	19
Oregon	11
Maine	9
West Virginia	9
Alaska	8
Wyoming	7
Vermont	5
Hawaii	2
Montana	1
Puerto Rico	-31
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

State	Deaths Per Million
New York	786
New Jersey	570
Connecticut	433
Louisiana	316
Massachusetts	316
Michigan	281
District of Columbia	179
Rhode Island	170
Pennsylvania	134
Illinois	124
Maryland	104
Indiana	98
Colorado	91
Delaware	91
Washington	91
Georgia	78
Mississippi	64
Vermont	64
Nevada	60
Ohio	52
Florida	43
Oklahoma	42
Wisconsin	42
Kentucky	41
Alabama	40
Virginia	40
Kansas	38
Missouri	38
California	36
New Hampshire	35
New Mexico	33
Arizona	32
Minnesota	31
Idaho	30
Maine	29
Iowa	28
South Carolina	27
Tennessee	25
Nebraska	23
North Carolina	23
Texas	19
North Dakota	18
Oregon	18
West Virginia	16
Arkansas	14
Puerto Rico	14
Montana	13
Alaska	12
South Dakota	10
Utah	10
Wyoming	10
Hawaii	8
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

State	New Deaths Per Million
Connecticut	38
New Jersey	32
New York	24
Massachusetts	23
District of Columbia	14
Michigan	14
Louisiana	12
Pennsylvania	11
Rhode Island	9
Maryland	8
Delaware	7
Illinois	7
Colorado	6
Georgia	4
Indiana	4
Mississippi	3
Nebraska	3
Nevada	3
Ohio	3
Alabama	2
Arizona	2
California	2
Florida	2
Kentucky	2
Minnesota	2
Missouri	2
New Mexico	2
Oklahoma	2
Virginia	2
Washington	2
Wyoming	2
Idaho	1
Iowa	1
Kansas	1
Maine	1
Montana	1
New Hampshire	1
North Carolina	1
North Dakota	1
South Carolina	1
Tennessee	1
Vermont	1
West Virginia	1
Wisconsin	1
Alaska	0
Arkansas	0
Hawaii	0
Oregon	0
Puerto Rico	0
South Dakota	0
Texas	0
Utah	0
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

Counties

• This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
  • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
• In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Cases Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
New York	New York	87,457	1	99
Lincoln	Arkansas	39,312	2	99
Marion	Ohio	32,830	3	99
Rockland	New York	29,771	4	99
Pickaway	Ohio	28,363	5	99
Davidson	Tennessee	2,826	196	93
Richland	South Carolina	1,744	396	87
Pierce	Washington	1,379	514	83
York	South Carolina	591	1194	61
Orange	California	552	1261	59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Deaths Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
New York	New York	6,517	1	99
Randolph	Georgia	2,508	2	99
Terrell	Georgia	2,110	3	99
Nassau	New York	1,300	4	99
Toole	Montana	1,267	5	99
Pierce	Washington	44	658	79
Richland	South Carolina	36	767	75
Davidson	Tennessee	32	830	73
Orange	California	11	1186	62
York	South Carolina	11	1187	62

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

• This section shows the raw counts over time for the U.S., our states, and our counties for four categories:
  • Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
  • New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new cases, to help better visualize the peak.
  • Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
  • New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new deaths, to help better visualize the peak.

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons

• This section is a work in progress. It’s exploring what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
  • The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
    • So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
    • Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens or declines in relation to the no-order group. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
    • As states start rescending their orders, I’ll put them back into the no-order group, so the no-order group should beging to expand again.
  • The second plot tracks progress of states by the number of days since orders have been in effect. It includes only those states with orders and shows their average new case growth rate (a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates) based on how long it’s been since the order went into effect. Again, the size of the dots show how many states are included in each point – i.e., as you go further right, the dots are smaller because less states are that far past their order.
    • I’m working on how to add a baseline to this chart to compare to states without orders, but that’s challenging because there’s no way to fully align timing.